By laksh5382 
indian rupee The fall continues. The domestic currency fell to a new low of 84.93 against the dollar on Tuesday before closing at 84.90. On the other hand, the dollar index has remained stable since the beginning of this week. This indicates that the market is waiting for the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.
fed watch
The 25 basis points (bps) rate cut has impacted the market to a great extent. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is a 97 percent chance of a 25-bps rate cut in this meeting.
There will be more focus on economic projections in this meeting. The Fed had projected a 100-bps rate cut in 2025 in its previous estimate released in September.
It is important to see whether the Fed is maintaining this estimate or making any revisions to it. Any change in the path of a rate cut in 2025 could cause some big fluctuations in the market.
rise in dollar
The dollar index (106.95) has moved back up nicely after testing its 105.50 level. The outlook is bullish. The index may rise to 108 in the short term. Failure to breach 108 could take the index down again to 107-106. In that case, the index may oscillate in the range of 105.50-108 for some time.
The bias will be positive. Therefore, we can expect the dollar index to cross 108 and reach 110-111 in the coming months.
near term support
Indian Rupee has key support at 85. This is likely to hold up, at least on its first trial. Therefore, we can expect the rupee to get relief in the coming days. There will be recovery to 84.70-84.65 in the coming weeks.
However, a move beyond 84.65 is unlikely and the rupee is likely to remain below this level. Ultimately it may break 85 and slowly move further down to 85.30 and below.