India’s retail inflation decreases to a 67 -month low of 3.34% in March.

Among the foods, vegetables saw deflation of more than 7 percent, while pulses had more than 2.7 percent.

Among the foods, vegetables saw deflation of more than 7 percent, while pulses had more than 2.7 percent.

The government said on Tuesday on Tuesday that a rapid improvement in food prices dropped by 3.34 percent in March to 3.34 percent on the basis of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the lowest year-to-year inflation since August 2019.

A statement by the Statistical Ministry said that significant decline in headline inflation and food inflation during March is primarily responsible for the decline in vegetables, eggs, pulses and products, meat and fish, grains and products and inflation of milk and products. There is a decline of 27 basis points in March headline inflation compared to February. Food inflation saw a decline of 2.69 percent in March from 3.75 percent in March.

“Food inflation in March 2025 is the lowest since November 2021,” the Ministry said. Among the foods, vegetables saw deflation of more than 7 percent, while pulses had more than 2.7 percent. Meanwhile, prices saw an increase in prices in edible oils and fruits as inflation for both goods exceeded 17 percent and 16 percent respectively.

Core inflation (headline inflation minus food and fuel inflation) was more than 4 percent.

Careedge’s Chief Economist Rajani Sinha said: “Core inflation was also benign at 4.1 percent despite stabbing marginally. Interestingly, the fuel and light category excluded decomposition after being in the deflation field for 18 consecutive months. However, fuel and lighting are likely to maintain this trend as a discount of some major states.”

LPG price increase

There was a concern about what and expected Heatwaves. A note by HDFC Bank states that some increase in the price of food is expected to increase in the coming summer season. “LPG price is expected to have an 8 basis points on the headline CPI with an increase of ₹ 50 per cylinder,” it said.

With a deep decrease in headline inflation, it is expected that the Monetary Policy Committee can go for another cut in the June meeting. “The required CPI will provide more comfort to the soft RBI to continue to prioritize development than inflation. We maintain our views that the RBI will continue on its adjustment trend with a terminal repo rate, which is about 5-5.25 percent,” Upasana Bharadwajj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank said.

DBS Bank senior economist Radhika Rao, while echoing Bhavna, said that despite a strong core, January -March headline inflation not only underlines the RBI’s quarterly launch by a comprehensive margin, but also fell below the RBI’s target limit. He said, “It validate the Central Bank’s decision to transfer to an adjustment stance along with a rate cut in the April meeting. We maintain our calls for more ease in June,” she said.

WPI inflation

The inflation of producers on the basis of the wholesale price index (WPI) fell to about 2 percent in March in March. However, this is more than 0.26 percent in March 2024.

A statement by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said, “The positive rate of inflation in March is mainly due to the increase in the prices of manufacturing food products, other manufacturing, food articles, electricity and garments, etc.”.

Published on 15 April 2025

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