By laksh5382 
The dollar index continued to rise for the third consecutive week. The increase to 104 last week was almost in line with our expectations. The index touched a high of 103.87, and declined from there to end the week at 103.49.
dollar outlook
The overall bullish outlook remains intact. The Dollar Index (103.49) has some resistance at 104 which may be tested this week. We expect this resistance to hold on its first test.
There is a possibility of a corrective fall from around 104 to 103-102.70. After this, a new bullish phase will have the potential to cross 104. In return, the dollar index will see a new increase to 105-105.50 in the coming weeks.
get support
US 10Yr Treasury yield (4.08 per cent) is finding support around 4 per cent. The yield declined in the first half of the week to a low of 3.99 per cent. But from there it made a good comeback in the second half, compensating for all the losses.
Immediate resistance is at 4.12 percent. A break above this could take US 10Yr Treasury yields to 4.17 and 4.21 percent this week. There will then be a need to keep a close eye on the price action to see if the rise is heading higher than 4.21 per cent or not.
The outlook will turn negative only if yields fall below 4 per cent. Only then will the possibility of a fall of 3.85-3.8 percent emerge again.
more downside
The Euro (EURUSD: 1.0867) continues to decline. It touched a low of 1.0811 and recovered from there. The broad trend is down. Resistances are at 1.0885 and then 1.0920-1.0930 which may limit the upside if we see a higher rise from current levels.
The outlook for breaking 1.08 in the coming days is bearish. Such a break could take the euro down to 1.0750 in the short term.
The 1.0750 level is a strong support that can stop the current decline. A bounce from there could trigger a further corrective rise to 1.09-1.0950.
fresh autumn
The Indian Rupee (USDINR: 84.07) remained broadly stable throughout the past week. The domestic currency remained stuck in a narrow 10 paise range of 83.98-84.08 throughout the week. The break above 84 seen on Wednesday failed to yield a strong follow-through gain. The rupee is likely to remain stuck between 84 and 84.10 for some more time.
However, the bias is negative. We expect the rupee to eventually break 84.10 levels and further fall towards 84.40 levels.
Rupee will have to make sustained gains above 84 to see recovery towards 83.85-83.80.
On the charts, the medium term picture is negative for the rupee. Further it is likely to remain below 83.50. Once there is a break below 84.10, it will open the door for rupee to weaken to 84.80-85 in the medium term.