By laksh5382 
This was an unstable week for the money market. The dollar index was badly knocked out after US President Donald Trump announced the tariff on Wednesday. American treasury yields declined sharply due to fear of America running in recession. In return, the greenback was pulled less. The dollar index fell at a low of 101.27. However, it has managed to recover on Friday and shut down the week at 103.
Dollar outlook
The trend is below. The dollar index (103) has immediate resistance at 103.20. The next strong resistance region above 104–104.50 is that can cap up the reverse when it grows above 103.20. Increase beyond 104.50 is less likely for now. We hope that the dollar index will be 100.50 in the short term.
The level of 100.50 is a significant support. Price action around it will require a close watch. From there, a boom may have the ability to move the index again to 103–104.
Recession breakout
The US 10YR Treasury Yield (3.99 percent) broke below the major support level of 4.1 percent and decreased by 3.86 percent last week. From there it increased back on Friday that the week was closed at 3.99 percent. The previous week has become almost faster than the decline of up to 3.8 percent and much faster than expected.
The approach is recession. Strong resistance is at 4.1 percent which can upside from here. We hope that 10YR yield will return to 3.7 and 3.6 percent in the coming weeks.
Range-bound
The growth of 1.11 on the euro (eurusd: 1.0956) has increased much faster than expected. The Euro touched the high level of 1.1144 and got down fast. Support is 1.09–1.0850 in the region. We expect it to bounce back to 1.1150–1.1180 in the short term and euro.
Now there are good opportunities for a few weeks to see the euro in the limit of 1.0850-1.12.
Has resistance
As expected, the Indian rupee (USDINR: 85.24) increased to test the 85–84.90 resistance area last week. The domestic currency created a high level of 84.95 and then returned from there to shut down the week at 85.24 in the onshore market. The increase in dollar has further pulled the rupee more in the offshore segment. The rupee closed at 85.48 against the dollar in the US season on Friday.
The rupee may have to violate 84.90 to strengthen further towards 84.60-84.50. Failure to break 84.90 can keep the domestic currency in a broad range of 84.90-86 for a few weeks.
Published on April 5, 2025